The broad markets have continued to advance starting the new year as the bull marches on. But there may be some signs of complacency as we see the fear index (VIX) hovering near multiyear lows and a bit of divergence below the surface. This is officially the 20th month of the current bull market that began in June of 2022. There have been a few corrections along the way and it’s our guess we will see a few more this year. In fact, beneath the surface there could be a stealth correction currently taking place. The number of stocks making new highs peaked six weeks ago even though the broader indices have advanced higher since then. This advancement has been carried on the backs of the mega cap companies like Meta, Google, and Nvidia while smaller companies continue to lag.
Additionally, there have been other indicators of weakness. The dollar, which has been inversely correlated to the stock market recently, has shown some resiliency to start the year. That might begin taking a toll on corporate earnings as our goods get more expensive to overseas customers. Also, we are seeing a shift toward consumer staples and away from consumer discretionary companies. This is typically what you see in belt-tightening, recessionary times as consumers forego the impulse buys and stick to the basics of TP, soap, and the like. The question is whether these are signs of an impending broad market correction or just normal volatility of the marketplace.
Some areas we turn to for further confirmation of strength or weakness in the markets are the charts of the main drivers of the economy: banks, industrials, semiconductors, and homebuilders. And currently all of these industrial leaders are above their former highs. If there is actually trouble in the economy and this stealth correction turns into a broader one, we will start to see these main sectors begin to falter. It would also not be surprising at all to see broader weakness in the near term, since February is typically one of the worst months of the year for stocks. And why wouldn’t it be? Many consumers are tapped out after the holiday rush and winter storms slow down economic activity. If February does turn out to be poor for the market, we will just be buying more quality names and diversified funds at a cheaper price. Regardless of what happens, don’t let seasonal weakness or all-time highs in the market scare you from investing. Even on a short time scale of 6 months, buying at the market top produced better returns than buying on any other day, and the out-performance gets even greater 1, 3, and 5 years later. Record highs often precede better long-term returns.
We’ve stated it before and it bears repeating: It’s not timing the market, it’s time in the market that counts the most.